Canada in striking distance of climate targets – if Ottawa moves quickly to put policies in place

A new review of Canada’s progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions finds that the country is getting closer to achieving its international climate commitments – although not quite as quickly as a recent self-assessment by Ottawa suggested.

The report being released on Friday morning by the Canadian Climate Institute finds that existing federal and provincial policies, plus those that are at some stage of development, should result in emissions falling between 34 and 36 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. That would be within striking distance of the 40 per cent national target.

It also finds that the country is on track to reduce emissions 19 per cent by 2026, just shy of the federal government’s interim target of a 20 per cent cut by then.

By slight contrast, the federal government stated last week, in the first progress report required by the 2021 Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, that it is on pace to exceed the 2026 interim goal. It also made the 36 per cent projection for 2030, absent the lower 34 per cent threshold.

In an interview, Anna Kanduth – who heads the Climate Institute’s emissions-tracking project – said that the sectors where slow progress most stands in the way of hitting the targets are oil-and-gas production and buildings (mostly from space heating).

 

 

 

But she said the main takeaway from her organization’s independent assessment of the government’s update is that, with existing climate policies starting to have a positive impact, Ottawa needs to accelerate its implementation of promised measures not yet in place.

The analysis in the Climate Institute’s report, which was done in partnership with the climate modeling firm Navius Research, underscores the imperative to make good on previous commitments in order to keep the 2030 target within reach.

It finds that policies implemented to date have Canada on pace for national emissions to be down from 2005 levels by 17 per cent in 2026, and 25 per cent in 2030. Among those measures are carbon pricing, Clean Fuel Regulations, and the mandated phaseout of coal power. The report also counts a suite of proposed tax credits for clean technologies in this category, even though they have not yet been legislated into place, because key details have largely been laid out and they are to be retroactive.

When the modeling takes into account policies that are currently at a relatively advanced stage of development but not yet ready, it shows the emissions reductions to be 31 per cent by 2030. Among the proposed policies in this category are Clean Electricity Regulations to restrict the use of all fossil fuels in power generation, and a requirement that a growing share of all new passenger car and truck sales be electric vehicles.

Only when the modeling includes policy promises that have been made, but not yet significantly developed to be near implementation, does it show the emissions cuts by 2030 reaching the 34 to 36 per cent range, depending on the stringency of those measures.

Measures cited by the Climate Institute that are still at that unadvanced stage include an zero-emissions vehicle mandate for commercial trucks – which would be similar to the one for passenger vehicles, but is more challenging to design – and a national green buildings strategy that does not seem to have gotten past the consultation stage. (The report also counts Ottawa’s proposed emissions cap for the oil-and-gas sector in this category, for which a framework was just announced last week.)

 

 

The report suggests that the longer the policies take to implement, the greater the risk that they will fall short of the projected emissions cuts.

It also notes uncertainty about how the different measures that the government is layering on will interact with each other. For instance, the oil-and-gas emissions cap’s overlap with the existing industrial carbon pricing system could lead to the latter having less effect that the modeling currently shows.

That’s in addition to the obvious possibility, which the review acknowledges, that some of the existing or planned emissions-reducing policies will be scrapped if there is a change in government.

Nevertheless, the review mostly offers qualified optimism about national emissions – which as of 2022 had fallen only 6.3 per cent from 2005 levels – starting to drop more significantly as recently enacted and soon-to-come policies take hold.

Ms. Kanduth also credited Ottawa for meeting the terms of its climate accountability legislation, with last week’s federal progress report representing “a leap forward” in transparency around the government’s modeling, although she suggested future such updates could usefully include further details around some of the assumptions.

 

 

This article was reported by The Globe and Mail